NFL Picks, Week One

The Phillies had a much needed day off after the debacle that was that road trip. Ugh... anyway, onto the rest of the NFL picks for week one. So far I haven't been wrong. (1-0 baby, woo!)

(Match ups are in bold in the beginning, as is the team I'm picking in the body of the paragraph.)

Kansas City (+3) at Houston: The Texans are favored in a football game? Really? Wow. It kinda makes sense - Kansas City is a terrible football team, and this game is in Houston. Larry Johnson could run all over this Texans defense, but they'll be stacking the line due to the lack of a Kansas City passing attack. Plus, Herm Edwards is coaching KC, and we all know how he loves to send LJ into 8 man fronts. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Texans will cover. Still, this is one of the toughest games to call this week. If you can, avoid wagering on it.

Denver (-3) at Buffalo: The Bills are an okay football team stuck in a good division. Lee Evans is a serious talent. JP Losman might not be awful after all. The defense is decent. And Buffalo is usually a tough place to win on the road, but not in early September. The Broncos are good. Take them, take the points. They will win by more than 3.

Pittsburgh (-5) at Cleveland: Charlie Frye is the starting QB for Cleveland. I don't think I need to say more, but I will anyway. The Browns stink, despite some legitimately talented players. After last years crappy superbowl defense, the Steelers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Big Ben is healthy and Fast Willie is, well, fast. The Steelers will win by a lot more than 5. They cover easily.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Jacksonville: This one is intriguing for a couple reasons. First of all, I think Vince Young is quickly becoming on of those QBs you just don't bet against. However, he struggled mightily against Jacksonville last year, and that defense is just as good. Still, the spread seems like too much. I have trouble seeing the Jaguars scoring 6.5 points, let alone winning by that many. They might win the game, but it won't be by a touchdown. Take the Titans, who will cover, if not win outright.

Carolina (+1) at St. Louis: This is a tough one. Which Panthers team are we going to see? the one with the vicious play-making defense and reasonably competent Jake Delhomme, or the one that underachieved last year? The Rams defense sucks, but that offense is quite good. Considering it's in St, Louis, I'm picking the Rams to cover, but I wouldn't bet money on this game.

Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay: This is the hardest game to be objective about, but let's get a few facts clear, shall we? Fact: Donovan McNabb is back and healthy. Fact: With McNabb and Brian Westbrook, the Eagles will have the 2 best players on the field. Throw in Brian Dawkins and it's the 3 best. Fact: Brett Favre is NOT what he used to be. Fact: It's in Green Bay, but it's still warm. Fact: Al Harris plays for the Packers. Not a good sign. Fact: despite some improvements, especially on defense, the Packers are not a good football team. The Eagles will cover.

Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota: This is another tough one. Forget Mike Vick. People forget that despite his explosiveness, he wasn't a very good QB. Atlanta's strength is running the ball, but unfortunately for them, Minnesota is one of the best teams in football against the run. Now, I would never recommend betting on Joey Harrington, but are you really about to wager some of your hard earned cash on Tavaris Jackson? Didn't think so. Take the Falcons, though this one could go either way. Just remember that like every team in the NFC North not from Chicago, Minnesota stinks.

Miami (+3) at Washington: The Redskins are favored? HAHAHAHAHA. Yo, the Redskins suck, Seriously, they're terrible. Joe Gibbs is a corpse. Jason Campbell will be a good NFL QB some day, but that day is not September 9th, 2007. Miami has a great defense, and I think Trent Green still has something left in the tank. Would it amaze me if the 'Skins won this game? No. But I don't think they will. Take the Dolphins, who will cover, and probably win outright.

New England (-6.5) at NY Jets: This one seems easy at first, but remember a few things: Richard Seymour is hurt. Rodney Harrison, lamentable piece of shit that he is, is suspended. And the Jets are a good football team with a good coach. They could win this game. That being said, I don't think they do. But I do think it will be close. I think the Jets cover, but I'm probably going to regret that decision. They're either going to cover or they're getting blown out. But hey, you shouldn't be betting against Tom Brady anyway.

Tampa Bay (+6) at Seattle: I don't think the Bucs will be as bad as everyone thinks, but they will be bad. Seattle, who always wins at home, will be good. Shaun Alexander is poised to once again do great things. I also think Jeff Garcia will have a good year, but not good enough to cover in week one. Take the Seahawks.

Chicago (+6) at San Diego: A lot of people think Chicago is in for a down year. I'm not one of those people. Are they a better team than San Diego? No. But they play in the NFC North, which is 6 guaranteed wins right there. My initial reaction was that Chicago should never get 6 points with that defense, but then I remembered that Rex Grossman is their QB. Chicago is an 11 win team, but this wont be one of them. Take the Chargers, in a game that turnovers will decide.

Detroit (+2.5) at Oakland: I would love that Detroit offense if it weren't for two things: Jon Kitna is the QB, and they're the Lions. The Lions don't win football games. My only concern is that Oakland's offense simply wont score enough to win this game, but with Kitna chucking up interceptions to one of the leagues best pass defenses, they might not have to. I think Oakland, led by Duante Culpepper and LaMont Jordan, both of whom have something to prove, will cover the spread. Remember, it's the Lions. Take the Raiders for one of their 5 wins this year.

NY Giants (+6) at Dallas: This one is easy. What do you get when you take Tiki Barber away from an already mediocre football team led by SHEli Manning and coached by Tom Coughlin? A terrible fucking football team! Dallas is good. The Giants aren't. It's in Dallas. Take the Cowgirls, they will cover.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cincinnati (Monday): The Ravens are underdogs? Look, they won't be as good as last year, but I don't believe in the Bengals, who did nothing to improve after a terrible offseason (from a legal standpoint). The Ravens will win this game by at least 3, regardless of how good that Bengal offense is. Take Baltimore.

Arizona (+3) at San Francisco (Monday): This could be a great game. It could also be a stinkfest. I would like the Cardinals this year, but they're the Cardinals. Much like the Lions, they don't really do the whole "winning" thing. I said months ago that I thought the 49ers were a playoff team, long before everyone else got on that bandwagon. Still, a bandwagon that full scares me. But I don't think they're losing to the Cardinals. Take the Niners, but I don't recommend betting on this game.

Well, that's it for my Week One picks. I hope they can help all you degenerate gamblers out there. Enjoy the weekend.