NFL Picks, Week Five

Maybe I'm finally starting to get the hang of this. Last week I went 9-5. That, or this season is just really fucked. That might be it. Everyone sucks except the Patriots, Colts, and, unfortunately, Cowboys. While I'm beginning to accept the Packers as a playoff team, especially in the NFC, where they're already halfway there with 4 wins, they aren't a contender. Sorry, they just aren't. Not when the return of Vernand Morency is going to improve their running game.

Anyway, onto the picks. Home team in caps.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina: Hey, the Saints have to win eventually, and Carolina is in shambles. David Carr is starting and the defense is a mess. Who knows when Dan Morgan will be back. With all due respect to the NFC North, this is the worst division in football.

KANSAS CITY (+2) over Jacksonville: I don't know what to think of either of these teams, other than that neither of them is any good. But the Chiefs always play well at Arrowhead, so that has to be worth something, right? Who knows. At this point the only thing that's clear is anyone who picked MoJo Drew in the first two rounds of their fantasy draft (and there are a lot of people who did) is an idiot. No one has ever had a flukier season than he did in '06. I'm not saying he isn't talented, but 16 TDs? Yeah, that was happening again.

Detroit (+3.5) over Washington: For the record, I think Washington, playing at home and coming off a bye, wins this game. But not by more than three. God's Quarterback is playing well and the Lions now face the challenge of not making the playoffs in the NFC despite winning three of their first four games. I have faith that they will pull it off.

PHILADELPHIA (+3) over Bye Week: Again, I think the Bye will win this outright, but it will be close. I see the Eagles losing by no more than two, while McNabb is sacked 17 times.

TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Atlanta: I think Tennessee is for real because Vince Young is definitely for real. Also, Atlanta is terrible. 8.5 is a lot for a team without a legit passing game, but I still think Tennessee covers.

Miami (+5) over HOUSTON: Again, Miami has to win eventually. Houston will be without Andre Johnson and probably Ahman Green. Miami is terrible enough that the Texans could pull this off, but I see a crappy, unwatchable game that someone wins by three. That, or a tie.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Seattle: I got nothing here. I'm picking Pittsburgh because it's in Pittsburgh, but these teams look evenly matched. I think the Steelers are pissed about losing last week, and they'll take it out on the Seahawks. Or maybe they wont. I don't know. If I could skip a game, this would be it.

NEW ENGLAND (16.5) over Cleveland: They could be playing anyone other than Indy, and I would still pick them to cover anything less than a 21 point spread. Jesus this team is good. And yes, Cleveland's offense has looked surprisingly frisky, but I think New England has a legit shot at 16-0. I'm praying against it, because it's the only way Boston fans could become more intolerable, but damn, this team is probably the best football team I've seen since the '94 49ers. Until we get to week 8 and the spread is routinely 3 or more touchdowns, I'm taking the Pats.

Arizona (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS: Oh, St. Louis. This is payback for an 83-win team winning the World Series last year. You get no sympathy from me. Enjoy Gus Frerotte.

N.Y. Jets (+3.5) over N.Y. GIANTS: I like how the Giants are officially the home team. That's funny. I also think it's funny that the Giants are favored here. Tom Coughlin is going to outcoach Eric Mangini? Riiiight. The Jets aren't as terrible as they seem. I think they definitely cover here, if not win outright. However, if they trade for Winston Justice before the gamer starts, take the Giants.

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Tampa Bay: I know Tampa Bay is 3-1. I know they're scrappy and well coached. I don't care. Indy is really fucking good and this game is in Indy. I don't think the loss of Cadillac Williams will affect the Bucs much, but Indy being a better team will affect them a lot.

San Diego (+1) over DENVER: I don't know what the hell is going on in San Diego. Is Norv Turner really this bad? Is Phillip Rivers? Who knows. All I know is Travis Herny is banged up and stoned, and the Denver defense might be good against the air, but I don't see them playing well against Tomlinson. Still, there's a reason the line is 1 here: even Vegas doesn't know what to make of this game.

Baltimore (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: I know I said I had to support San Fran, but that was with Alex Smith as QB. When Trent Dilfer plays, all bets are off. I don't like this Ravens team, but I really don't like the Niners.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Chicago: Still not sold on the Packers, but the Bears ain't good. Injuries have decimated the defense and a sheer lack of talent at QB and RB has decimated the offense. Could the Bears win this game? Sure. Easily. But I doubt they will. Still, Brian Griese is not as terrible as people say he is. Look at his stats in 2000. Not too shabby. Unfortunately for the Bears, he was 25 then, not 32. Oh well.

Dallas (-10) over BUFFALO: This should be a shootout. I'm hoping this is the week Lee Evans makes me remember why I drafted him on my fantasy team. I hate the Cowboys, but they're good. Buffalo isn't. If this game were in December, I'd take the Bills, but it isn't cold enough to matter yet. Plus, it'll still be at least a few weeks before T.O. submarines the team.

Well, enjoy the games, and the baseball. Crazy game in Cleveland last night. That was a lot of bugs. Just one more reason never to go to Cleveland. As if we needed another one.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 25-34-3